The Future of Skills Employment in 2030

A continuación te comparto una serie de artículos elaborados por Hasan Bakhshi, Jonathan M. Downing , Michael A. Osborne, Philippe Schneider acerca de las habilidades necesarias para obtener un empleo en el 2030.

Executive Summary

Recent debates about the future of jobs have mainly focused on
whether or not they are at risk of automation (Arntz et. al., 2016;
Frey and Osborne, 2017; McKinsey, 2017; PwC, 2017). Studies
have generally minimised the potential effects of automation on
job creation, and have tended to ignore other relevant trends,
including globalisation, population ageing, urbanisation, and the
rise of the green economy.
In this study we use a novel and comprehensive method
to map out how employment is likely to change, and the implications
for skills. We show both what we can expect, and where we should
be uncertain. We also show likely dynamics in different parts of the
labour market — from sectors like food and health to manufacturing.
We find that education, health care, and wider public sector
occupations are likely to grow. We also explain why some low-skilled
jobs, in fields like construction and agriculture, are less likely to suffer
poor labour market outcomes than has been assumed in the past.
More generally, we shine a light on the skills that are likely to be in
greater demand, including interpersonal skills, higher-order cognitive
skills, and systems skills. Unlike other recent studies, the method
also makes it possible to predict with some confidence what kinds of
new jobs may come into existence.
The study challenges the false alarmism that contributes to a
culture of risk aversion and holds back technology adoption,
innovation, and growth; this matters particularly to countries like
the US and the UK, which already face structural productivity
problems (Atkinson and Wu, 2017; Shiller, 2017).
Crucially, through the report, we point to the actions that educators,
policymakers and individuals can take to better prepare themselves
for the future.

Hasan Bakhshi
Jonathan M. Downing
Michael A. Osborne
Philippe Schneider

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